The susan molinari warner speech keynote
The Pressure Will Be On The Virginian Speaking In The Slot That
Catapulted Obama, But History Suggests Success And Failure Are
Relative
Rep. Susan Molinari was at a New York City bar in 1996 when her
assistant paged her and told her to call in to “Larry King Live”; Bob
Dole had just named her the keynote speaker at the Republican National
Convention.
In San Diego that summer, Molinari presented a young working mother as
the new face of the Republican Party. But despite getting off the line
that a promise from Bill Clinton had “the lifespan of a Big Mac on Air
Force One,” the was soon forgotten, and less than a year after her
moment in the spotlight, Molinari was out of politics.
The stakes are always high for a politician being introduced to a
national primetime audience. But they may be distinctly more difficult
for this year’s Democratic convention keynoter, former Virginia
governor and current Senate candidate Mark Warner. He’ll be speaking
on Tuesday night, where he could easily be overshadowed by a highly
anticipated speech from New York Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton. Warner
will also be filling the role that four years ago went to Barack
Obama, whose successful 2004 address in many ways began the upward
climb that will culminate with his official nomination that Thursday.
While some convention keynotes have vaulted politicians to national
recognition… the role has done little good for other political
careers, even at times setting them back.
But analysts say the keynote speech doesn’t necessarily fate
politicians — or their parties — to success or failure.
“Historically, the keynote speech doesn’t matter very much, at least
in the long run,” said Larry Sabato, a professor of politics at the
University of Virginia. “It can help to stir up the energy level in
the convention hall, and that can be seen on television as well.”
A good speech can aid a politician’s rise, but it won’t, by itself,
make a legacy. “It’s a rung on the ladder to becoming an important
national figure,” Democratic pollster Mark Mellman said. “But it’s
only one step. You have to climb that rung strongly.”
Obama took an impressive step up when stole the spotlight four years
ago with his speech in Boston. And Texas Gov. Ann Richards became a
political celebrity in 1988 for a in which she mocked Republican
candidate George H.W. Bush as “poor George,” quipping that he was
“born with a silver foot in his mouth.”
But for every Obama or Richards, there is a Molinari or an Evan Bayh,
whose in Chicago was widely panned. While some convention keynotes
have vaulted politicians to national recognition — even, in Obama’s
case, to a presidential nomination — the role has done little good
for other political careers, even at times setting them back.
Tennessee Rep. Harold Ford made few waves after in 2000, and Sabato
said Bayh was hurt for years by his poor performance in 1996. Obama’s
counterpart at the 2004 GOP convention, retiring Sen. Zell Miller,
D-Ga., grabbed notice for crossing party lines to speak in New York,
but it was hardly the bridge-building star turn on which future
political careers have been made.
(It is a common misnomer that then-Arkansas Gov. Bill Clinton bombed
in 1988 as the Democratic keynote speaker. His 32-minute, much-
lampooned speech was actually the nominating speech for Massachusetts
Gov. Michael Dukakis.)
Republican officials announced Tuesday that former New York City Mayor
Rudy Giuliani, who himself mounted an unsuccessful bid for the
presidency, will deliver the keynote address in St. Paul. Giuliani was
well received as a convention speaker in 2004, but he does not
represent a new voice in the same way that past keynote speakers have.
Some had speculated that Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal — who, like
Obama, has come to be viewed by some as the future face of his party
– would be offered the slot.
Advisers to Warner suggest his remarks will not throw red meat to
those assembled in Denver. He has remained popular in a traditionally
Republican state by crossing party lines on some issues, and aides are
nervous that a partisan speech could hurt him back home. Instead, he
is likely to tout his business background and the successes he
achieved in Virginia, while tying himself to Obama with a bipartisan
message that focuses on accountability and results.
“Message-wise, it’s a great opportunity that fits completely with
where he is as a leader and what he’s offering as a candidate,” a
Warner adviser said.
“We’ve got to get beyond the notion that every problem has got either
a Democrat or Republican solution,” Warner told Bloomberg Television
on Tuesday, “when in actuality we need to put American solutions
first, and the notion that you can’t write off all of small-town and
rural America, which both political parties have for 30 years.”
One Warner aide said the candidate was approached by the Obama
campaign several weeks ago to gauge interest in the speech. Warner’s
staff will likely be the ones to draft the remarks and have been told
that the Obama campaign does not hold veto power.
But one Democratic operative who has been involved in convention
planning in the past said campaigns often stress themes and ensure
those messages make their way into all the speeches. “Often, there’ll
be some vetting” of the addresses, he said.
Sabato said he thought Warner harbors presidential ambitions — two
years ago, Warner surprised many when he announced he would not pursue
the office in 2008 — and the address will be a test of his readiness
for a White House bid, especially given that he is not known for his
oratorical skills.
“If I were in his shoes, I’d be self-deprecating to Obama, both as the
nominee and the guy who did this four years ago,” Sabato said. “He
should admit from the beginning he can’t equal Obama’s score.”
But even in a best-case scenario, Sabato said, when the next day’s
newspapers arrive, “I doubt Warner will even get a headline.”
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